Bitcoin Set for Largest Monthly Options Expiry of 2024: A Crucial Opportunity for Bulls
With a total exposure of $13.6 billion, the largest monthly options expiry of 2024 is just around the corner for Bitcoin (BTC). This significant event presents bulls with a pivotal opportunity to push Bitcoin’s price above $100,000, making it essential to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire on November 29.
S&P 500 Struggles to Maintain Levels Above 6,000
The S&P 500 has faced significant challenges in maintaining levels above 6,000 over the past three weeks, signaling growing investor caution. This shift in sentiment is reflected in the United States five-year Treasury yield, which has declined from 4.35% on November 15 to the current 4.12%. Investors increasingly prioritize government bonds’ relative safety, even at lower returns.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Its Impact on Bitcoin
Periods of macroeconomic uncertainty, often driven by fears of an economic slowdown, typically trigger a flight to quality, prompting investors to exit riskier assets. Still, the 5% rebound from Bitcoin’s $90,775 low on November 26 suggests that confidence remains strong amid 34% gains over the last 30 days.
Research Note: US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation
In a research note dated November 27, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics stated that US PCE inflation could rise above 3% if President-elect Donald Trump implements import tariffs. Separately, Barclays analysts noted:
"Temporary and uncertain tariffs of this nature create natural incentives to delay investments."
Bitcoin Call (Buy) Options: A Bullish Indicator
From a broader perspective, Bitcoin call (buy) options for November 29 hold an aggregate notional value of $7.4 billion on Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance, and Bybit, surpassing the $6.2 billion in open interest for put (sell) options by 19%. This disparity is narrower than typical trends, as crypto traders often lean bullish.
Deribit Bitcoin Nov. 29 Options Open Interest
Notably, only 20% of call options have strike prices at or above $100,000, representing $4.25 billion in notional value for the November expiry. In contrast, less than 2% of put options target $100,000 or higher, effectively rendering most of them worthless and reducing their notional value to about $80 million.
Four Probable Scenarios for Deribit Exchange
Below are the four most probable scenarios for the Deribit exchange based on current price trends. The availability of call and put options for the Nov. 28 expiration will depend on Bitcoin’s settlement price at 8:00 am UTC.
Scenario 1: Between $86,000 and $90,000
The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $1.65 billion.
Scenario 2: Between $90,000 and $94,000
The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $2.6 billion.
Scenario 3: Between $94,000 and $98,000
The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $3.55 billion.
Scenario 4: Between $98,000 and $102,000
The net result favors the call (buy) options by $4.58 billion.
Conclusion
So, the bears face substantial pressure to drive Bitcoin’s price below $90,000 before the November options expiry to prevent call options from prevailing. However, Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflation concerns suggests that prices could reach $100,000 or higher soon after these BTC options expire.
Disclaimer
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
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