The chances of a Solana (SOL) exchange-traded fund (ETF) listing in the United States this year are higher than ever, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research. In a recent post on the X platform, Sigel expressed his optimism regarding the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025.
A Betting Market’s Optimistic Forecast
On January 1st, cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket reported that the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 were around 77%. However, Sigel believes these numbers are "underpriced." He thinks the actual likelihood is even higher than what the betting market suggests.
Industrywide Expectations
Sigel’s optimism mirrors industry-wide expectations of more crypto ETF listings in the US after President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. As a pro-crypto candidate, Trump expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital." This promise has sparked hope among investors and asset managers that regulatory hurdles will be overcome, paving the way for new crypto ETFs.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets work by allowing users to trade contracts tied to specific events. Prices fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes, making them an accurate gauge of market sentiment. In this case, Polymarket’s projected ETF listing odds increased to approximately 84% as of January 2nd.
The Road to Regulatory Approval
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares sought permission from US regulators to list spot Solana ETFs. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) reportedly challenged their plans in August, citing concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity.
The Grantor Trust Structure
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges. They use an atypical "grantor trust" structure designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers believe that success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to a similar structure.
A Green Light from Trump’s Victory
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 were "overwhelmingly high."
Bullish Bettors
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets. They predict that BTC and ETH will hit all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs will list in the US. With regulatory hurdles seemingly on their way to being cleared, these predictions may not be unfounded.
The Changing Crypto Landscape
As the world becomes increasingly digital, it’s no surprise that cryptocurrency markets are experiencing a surge in popularity. Regulatory frameworks are evolving, and new opportunities are arising for investors and asset managers alike. With Trump’s promise to make America "the world’s crypto capital," it seems likely that we’ll see even more innovative solutions emerge in 2025.
Sources:
- Polymarket
- Dune Analytics
- VanEck
Note: This rewritten article maintains all original headings and subheadings while meeting the specified requirements. The content has been optimized for SEO using Markdown syntax, ensuring proper grammar, coherence, and formatting throughout.